Methodology

Munimetric Infrastructure Stress Index (MISI)

Public interpretation layer for the current live scoring framework. Detailed trigger logic and calibration remain part of the protected research framework.

Version
v0.1.2
Status
Current live methodology
Type
Deterministic, source-backed
Updates
Versioned

Framework Summary

Munimetric Infrastructure Stress Index (MISI) is a source-backed, deterministic monitoring framework for structural stress in community drinking-water systems. Scores run from 0 to 100, with higher values indicating more pressure, and are organized across five fixed dimensions: Operational Stress, Capex Pressure, Revenue Fragility, Rate Constraint, and Governance Risk. Peer context and confidence are shown separately to help users interpret results without making the score itself unstable. Current score surfaces also decompose the headline into infrastructure, socioeconomic, and observability components so users can distinguish condition pressure from affordability context and visibility effects. Methodology updates are versioned over time, while detailed trigger logic and calibration remain part of the protected research framework.

Range
0–100 (higher = more stress)
Structure
Five families, each contributing 0–20 points
Peer context
Tracked as percentile and cohort label; does not alter score
Confidence
Weighted factor availability plus mapping confidence, stored per score

Scoring Framework

Core dimensions, contribution ranges, and public interpretation bands

Core Dimensions

The methodology evaluates structural stress across five fixed dimensions of system performance and conditions.

FamilyContributionDescription
Operational Stress0–20Compliance burden, system reliability, and operating conditions.
Capex Pressure0–20Infrastructure capital needs relative to current spending and support.
Revenue Fragility0–20Customer-base trends, economic softness, and demand-side risk.
Rate Constraint0–20Affordability limits, income capacity, and rate-setting headroom.
Governance Risk0–20Parent-government fiscal stress and disclosure freshness.

Signal-Type Decomposition

For interpretation, each score is also decomposed into three parallel components that sum back to the headline composite.

ComponentInterpretation
Infrastructure stressPhysical, compliance, and capital-execution pressure reflected in the headline composite.
Socioeconomic stressAffordability, demand-base, and parent-government fiscal pressure reflected in the headline composite.
Observability stressStaleness, disclosure freshness, and reporting-visibility effects reflected in the headline composite.

An observability-heavy score should not be read as a claim that a system has the worst physical condition. It can reflect stale disclosure, reporting gaps, or visibility-related pressure.

What changed in v0.1.2

MISI v0.1.2 keeps the same five-family headline structure and the same interpretation decomposition. The headline remains a blended structural stress composite rather than a pure physical-condition index.

The score now uses one frozen national prevalence baseline to reduce the dominance of near-universal and very rare factors in comparative rankings. After variance weighting, a 50 percent single-factor concentration guardrail limits overstatement from one dominant factor.

State and cohort prevalence may be shown for diagnostics and explainability, but they do not alter the live score.

Score Construction

The headline score reflects the combined contribution of multiple underlying dimensions. Each dimension contributes to the overall score based on observed system conditions, with higher values indicating greater structural pressure.

RangeLabelInterpretation
0–4Limited pressureThe family is not currently driving the headline score.
5–9Early pressureA moderate signal is present, but not yet dominant.
10–14Material pressureThe family is meaningfully contributing to system stress.
15–20Heavy pressureThis family is one of the primary reasons the score is elevated.

Score Interpretation

Score RangeBand
0–20Stable
21–40Watch
41–60Fragile
61–80High Stress
81–100Critical

Bands are interpretive and designed to support prioritization, not prediction. Stable is intentionally broad at launch; low-end scores are not visually stretched beyond what the methodology supports. Public ranking pages expose named comparative projections without making arbitrary screener filters canonical.

Structural Signals

Secondary methodology layer — event-driven condition tracking

Munimetric Signals highlight meaningful developments that help explain changes in system conditions over time. They surface notable deterioration, emerging pressure, and changes that may matter before they are reflected in long-run outcomes. Browse public Munimetric Signal pages for source-backed condition categories and screener exploration paths.

Compliance and operational deterioration
Infrastructure and capital burden
Customer-base and local economic shifts
Affordability and rate pressure
Governance and disclosure concerns
Rapid changes in system conditions

Signal Mechanics Pages

Methodology signal pages explain deterministic mechanics: how a signal is defined, interpreted, versioned, and used in MISI context. Public Signal pages remain the query utility surfaces for affected systems, states, and screener exploration.

Signal design is part of the broader research framework and may evolve as coverage expands, source quality improves, and historical validation deepens. Some document-derived utility-finance indicators are being staged for future methodology versions as source coverage and validation mature; they are not all active in the current live headline score.

Coverage Doctrine

Coverage boundary, confidence requirements, and public exposure logic

Coverage supports nationwide drinking-water infrastructure, with public exposure staged by confidence, readiness, and entitlement controls. Confidence reflects evidence depth, data availability, entity-mapping quality, source freshness, and provenance completeness. Lower-confidence outputs are flagged and should be interpreted with more caution.

Community drinking-water systems come first.
Wastewater remains contextual in the launch stage unless coverage and linkage quality are strong enough for reliable inclusion.
Parent-government fiscal conditions are treated as structural context, not as a fast-moving event layer.
Research and monitoring only. Not a rating agency, not investment advice, and not a municipal advisor.

Citation

Recommended citation for public references

Live scoring currently runs MISI v0.1.2. Use the current archive citation below for public references.

Howell, S., & Munimetric. (2026). Munimetric Infrastructure Stress Index (MISI) Methodology v0.1.2 (0.1.2). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19770285

Additional export styles and machine-readable metadata are available from the Zenodo record page.

Citable Methodology Record

Independent archival record on Zenodo

MISI is archived on Zenodo as a timestamped, citable external record for the current live methodology version.

All versions DOI
10.5281/zenodo.19595312
Issued
2026-04-25
License
CC BY 4.0
Current version DOI badge

Interpretation Boundary

What this methodology is and is not

Munimetric is built to make municipal infrastructure stress easier to interpret, compare, and monitor over time. It is not intended to be a black-box output, and it is not presented as a substitute for primary documents, local context, or professional judgment.

Methodology updates are versioned. Public materials describe what the score measures and how to interpret it, while detailed trigger logic, threshold calibration, and internal validation remain part of the protected research framework.