MISI Score
26.9
Watch
Project NC / Nash County
Bailey
BOTH · Nash CountyDistressedPWSID NC0464035
Score Confidence
0.8%
Peer Percentile
68.1th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 26.868 (Watch).
- Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 7.994 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +8 because direct lead sample exceedances were recorded: lead sample exceedances=2, copper sample exceedances=0, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=0. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.994.
- Compliance Escalation adds 5.929 points. Operational compliance contributes +6: 23 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6.000000 to 5.929.
- Climate Hazard Exposure adds 5.398 points. Operational climate hazard exposure contributes +6: FEMA NRI composite score is 80.6000. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.398.
- Current Drought Severity adds 3.957 points. Current drought severity contributes +4: USDM severity index is 0.7500 as of 2026-05-26. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4 to 3.957.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Infrastructure Capital Gap, PFAS Contamination Risk, Parent-Government Fiscal Stress.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Bailey is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 563 residents. At the latest reading, Munimetric flags the system as showing early but meaningful signs of structural stress.
The score is being driven mainly by Operational Stress, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Capex Pressure adding further pressure. In other words, Operational Stress is doing most of the heavy lifting in the headline score.
5 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 2 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 68th percentile on measured stress, placing it above most of its peers on measured stress, though not yet in the most extreme tier.
Recent score history has been relatively steady, consistent with the system's overall profile.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress18.9 / 20.0
Capex Pressure8.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility0.0 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
5 Signals
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 5.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.
Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 5.4 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 8.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
26.9
Trend
+26.9
Observations
48
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population590
General Fund Expenditure$868K
Fund Balance Available$921K
Fund Balance %106.1%
Cash & Investments$1.3M
Assessed Valuation$41.3M
Tax Rate0.7
Effective Tax Rate0.4
Tax Collection %98.9%
Amount Uncollected$3K
Days Cash on Hand
288
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
563