MISI Score
42.2
Fragile
Project NC / Robeson County
Fairmont
BOTH · Robeson CountyDistressedPWSID NC0378025
Score Confidence
0.8%
Peer Percentile
97.4th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 42.222 (Fragile).
- Population Served Decline adds 9.106 points. Population trend contributes +10: five-year population change is -11.835953%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.106.
- Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 7.994 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +8 because direct lead sample exceedances were recorded: lead sample exceedances=2, copper sample exceedances=0, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=0. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.994.
- Climate Hazard Exposure adds 7.198 points. Operational climate hazard exposure contributes +8: FEMA NRI composite score is 91.0900. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.198.
- Compliance Escalation adds 5.929 points. Operational compliance contributes +6: 5 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6.000000 to 5.929.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Infrastructure Capital Gap, PFAS Contamination Risk, Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Fairmont is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 2,837 residents. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Revenue Fragility, which is running high in the model, with Operational Stress adding another heavy layer of pressure. That combination suggests strain is showing up across core system functions, not just one isolated dimension.
7 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 5 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 97th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress17.1 / 20.0
Capex Pressure8.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility17.1 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 12 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
7 Signals
Days Cash on Hand
Weak unrestricted liquidity reduces the utility's ability to absorb rate, capex, or operating shocks.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 9.1 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 7.2 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 8.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 5.9 · Family: Operational Stress
High-AGI Out-Migration
High-AGI outmigration erodes the rate base and compresses affordability headroom.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
42.2
Trend
+42.2
Observations
48
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population2,186
General Fund Expenditure$2.7M
Fund Balance Available$891K
Fund Balance %33.4%
Cash & Investments$4.6M
Assessed Valuation$132.8M
Tax Rate0.7
Effective Tax Rate0.5
Tax Collection %91.4%
Amount Uncollected$73K
Days Cash on Hand
37
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
2,837