MISI Score
44.0
Fragile
Project NC / Pitt County
Greenville Utilities Commission
BOTH · Pitt CountyPWSID NC0474010
Score Confidence
1.0%
Peer Percentile
87.5th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 43.994 (Fragile).
- Compliance Escalation adds 9.882 points. Operational compliance contributes +10: 10 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10.000000 to 9.882.
- Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 7.994 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +8 because direct lead sample exceedances were recorded: lead sample exceedances=5, copper sample exceedances=0, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=0. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.994.
- Infrastructure Capital Gap adds 7.492 points. Capex pressure contributes +8: drinking-water capital need is 159881775.129454 with per-capita burden 1550.14. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.492.
- PFAS Contamination Risk adds 5.998 points. PFAS contamination contributes +6: detections=12, max result=0.007600 ng/L. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.998.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Greenville Utilities Commission's drinking-water system serves about 103,140 residents, making it a mid-size system within the coverage universe. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Operational Stress, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Capex Pressure adding another heavy layer of pressure. That combination suggests strain is showing up across core system functions, not just one isolated dimension.
8 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 4 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 88th percentile on measured stress, placing it among the more stressed systems in its peer group.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress20.0 / 20.0
Capex Pressure20.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility4.0 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
8 Signals
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 9.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.
Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 5.4 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 8.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
PFAS Contamination Risk
PFAS detections can force expensive treatment retrofits and accelerate capital plans.
Score impact: 6.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
High-AGI Out-Migration
High-AGI outmigration erodes the rate base and compresses affordability headroom.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.
Score impact: 7.5 · Family: Capex Pressure
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
44.0
Trend
+44.0
Observations
48
Population Served
103,140