MISI Score
45.3
Fragile
Project NC / Lenoir County
Kinston
BOTH · Lenoir CountyPWSID NC0454010
Score Confidence
0.9%
Peer Percentile
98.0th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 45.288 (Fragile).
- Parent-Government Fiscal Stress adds 9.157 points. Governance Risk contributes +10: parent-government flags=['debt_service_ratio>=11', 'operating_deficit_flag=1', 'pension_contribution_ratio>=18', 'funding_ratio<75', 'retiree_to_worker_ratio>=1.25']. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.157.
- Infrastructure Capital Gap adds 7.492 points. Capex pressure contributes +8: drinking-water capital need is 34200000.000000 with per-capita burden 1668.29. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.492.
- Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 5.996 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +6 because direct copper sample exceedances were recorded: lead sample exceedances=0, copper sample exceedances=1, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=0. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.996.
- Climate Hazard Exposure adds 5.398 points. Operational climate hazard exposure contributes +6: FEMA NRI composite score is 84.6100. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.398.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Utility Data Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
As a community water provider for roughly 20,500 residents, Kinston falls into the smaller tier of scored systems. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Capex Pressure, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Operational Stress adding further pressure. In other words, Capex Pressure is doing most of the heavy lifting in the headline score.
9 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 3 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 98th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress9.4 / 20.0
Capex Pressure20.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility6.8 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk9.2 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
9 Signals
SRF Dependence Spike
Repeated dependence on subsidized capital can indicate recurring infrastructure funding stress.
Score impact: 4.8 · Family: Capex Pressure
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 6.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
Days Cash on Hand
Weak unrestricted liquidity reduces the utility's ability to absorb rate, capex, or operating shocks.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 2.7 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Parent-Government Fiscal Stress
Parent-government debt, pension, or operating stress can constrain infrastructure support and governance flexibility.
Score impact: 9.2 · Family: Governance Risk
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.
Score impact: 7.5 · Family: Capex Pressure
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 5.4 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
PFAS Contamination Risk
PFAS detections can force expensive treatment retrofits and accelerate capital plans.
Score impact: 3.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
45.3
Trend
+38.3
Observations
58
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population19,242
General Fund Expenditure$23.2M
Fund Balance Available$16.5M
Fund Balance %71.1%
Cash & Investments$112.4M
Assessed Valuation$1461.6M
Tax Rate0.8
Effective Tax Rate0.5
Tax Collection %98.9%
Amount Uncollected$130K
Days Cash on Hand
347
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
20,500