MISI Score
52.9
Fragile
Project NC / Robeson County
Lumberton
BOTH · Robeson CountyPWSID NC0378010
Score Confidence
0.9%
Peer Percentile
99.8th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 52.949 (Fragile).
- Compliance Escalation adds 11.858 points. Operational compliance contributes +12: 2 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 12.000000 to 11.858.
- Parent-Government Fiscal Stress adds 9.157 points. Governance Risk contributes +10: parent-government flags=['debt_service_ratio>=11', 'operating_deficit_flag=1', 'pension_contribution_ratio>=18', 'funding_ratio<75', 'retiree_to_worker_ratio>=1.25']. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.157.
- Population Served Decline adds 9.106 points. Population trend contributes +10: five-year population change is -11.835953%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.106.
- Infrastructure Capital Gap adds 7.492 points. Capex pressure contributes +8: drinking-water capital need is 29800000.000000 with per-capita burden 1505.05. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.492.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Lead & Copper Rule Risk, PFAS Contamination Risk, Utility Data Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
As a community water provider for roughly 19,800 residents, Lumberton falls into the smaller tier of scored systems. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Operational Stress, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Revenue Fragility adding further pressure. In other words, Operational Stress is doing most of the heavy lifting in the headline score.
8 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 7 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 100th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress20.0 / 20.0
Capex Pressure7.5 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility13.1 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk12.4 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
8 Signals
Formal Enforcement Obligations
Active consent decrees and formal orders create mandated near-term capital and operational obligations.
Score impact: 3.2 · Family: Governance Risk
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 9.1 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 11.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Parent-Government Fiscal Stress
Parent-government debt, pension, or operating stress can constrain infrastructure support and governance flexibility.
Score impact: 9.2 · Family: Governance Risk
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.
Score impact: 7.5 · Family: Capex Pressure
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 7.2 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
High-AGI Out-Migration
High-AGI outmigration erodes the rate base and compresses affordability headroom.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
52.9
Trend
+38.9
Observations
58
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population19,168
General Fund Expenditure$28.3M
Fund Balance Available$8.2M
Fund Balance %29.1%
Cash & Investments$29.2M
Assessed Valuation$1755.7M
Tax Rate0.7
Effective Tax Rate0.5
Tax Collection %94.6%
Amount Uncollected$618K
Days Cash on Hand
284
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
19,800