MISI Score
44.7
Fragile
Project NC / Duplin County
Magnolia
BOTH · Duplin CountyDistressedPWSID NC0431035
Score Confidence
0.9%
Peer Percentile
98.7th
As of
Jul 13, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 44.669 (Fragile).
- Infrastructure Capital Gap adds 11.238 points. Capex pressure contributes +12: drinking-water capital need is 2352687.356189 with per-capita burden 2400.70. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 12 to 11.238.
- Population Served Decline adds 9.106 points. Population trend contributes +10: five-year population change is -16.334560%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.106.
- Compliance Escalation adds 5.929 points. Operational compliance contributes +6: 19 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6.000000 to 5.929.
- Climate Hazard Exposure adds 5.398 points. Operational climate hazard exposure contributes +6: FEMA NRI composite score is 89.4100. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.398.
- Missing or unresolved factors: PFAS Contamination Risk.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Magnolia is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 980 residents. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Capex Pressure, which is running high in the model, with Operational Stress adding another heavy layer of pressure. That combination suggests strain is showing up across core system functions, not just one isolated dimension.
7 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 3 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 99th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress15.3 / 20.0
Capex Pressure16.2 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility13.2 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 12 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
7 Signals
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 9.1 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Days Cash on Hand
Weak unrestricted liquidity reduces the utility's ability to absorb rate, capex, or operating shocks.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.
Score impact: 11.2 · Family: Capex Pressure
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 5.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 5.4 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 5.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
44.7
Trend
+44.7
Observations
72
Days Cash on Hand
33
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
980