MISI Score
31.7
Watch
Project NC / Wayne/Duplin County
Mount Olive
BOTH · Wayne/Duplin CountyDistressedPWSID NC0496015
Score Confidence
0.9%
Peer Percentile
73.9th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 31.723 (Watch).
- Climate Hazard Exposure adds 7.198 points. Operational climate hazard exposure contributes +8: FEMA NRI composite score is 90.3900. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.198.
- Compliance Escalation adds 5.929 points. Operational compliance contributes +6: 20 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6.000000 to 5.929.
- Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 4.997 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +5: lead sample exceedances=0, copper sample exceedances=0, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=0. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 5 to 4.997.
- High-AGI Out-Migration adds 3.994 points. Revenue-fragility AGI outmigration contributes +4: net AGI migration is -2919.00 (thousands, tax year 2022). variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4 to 3.994.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Infrastructure Capital Gap, Parent-Government Fiscal Stress, Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Mount Olive is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 4,261 residents. At the latest reading, Munimetric flags the system as showing early but meaningful signs of structural stress.
The score is being driven mainly by Operational Stress, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Revenue Fragility contributing at a lower level. In other words, Operational Stress is doing most of the heavy lifting in the headline score.
7 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 3 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 74th percentile on measured stress, placing it above most of its peers on measured stress, though not yet in the most extreme tier.
Recent score history has been relatively steady, consistent with the system's overall profile.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress20.0 / 20.0
Capex Pressure5.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility6.7 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 15 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
7 Signals
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.
Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 5.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 2.7 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 7.2 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 5.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
High-AGI Out-Migration
High-AGI outmigration erodes the rate base and compresses affordability headroom.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
31.7
Trend
+18.7
Observations
50
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population4,588
General Fund Expenditure$5.4M
Fund Balance Available$1.3M
Fund Balance %24.6%
Cash & Investments$12.8M
Assessed Valuation$298.8M
Tax Rate0.7
Effective Tax Rate0.5
Tax Collection %97.7%
Amount Uncollected$47K
Days Cash on Hand
215
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
4,261