MISI Score
43.3
Fragile
Project NC / McDowell County
Old Fort
BOTH · McDowell CountyPWSID NC0156025
Score Confidence
1.0%
Peer Percentile
97.7th
As of
Sep 10, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 43.342 (Fragile).
- Infrastructure Capital Gap adds 11.238 points. Capex pressure contributes +12: drinking-water capital need is 4617567.706299 with per-capita burden 2716.22. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 12 to 11.238.
- Compliance Escalation adds 9.882 points. Operational compliance contributes +10: 11 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10.000000 to 9.882.
- PFAS Contamination Risk adds 7.998 points. PFAS contamination contributes +8: detections=5, max result=11.000000 ng/L. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.998.
- Population Served Decline adds 5.464 points. Population trend contributes +6: five-year population change is -5.273754%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.464.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Old Fort is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 1,700 residents. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Capex Pressure, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Operational Stress adding another heavy layer of pressure. That combination suggests strain is showing up across core system functions, not just one isolated dimension.
8 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 3 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 98th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress15.5 / 20.0
Capex Pressure20.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility5.5 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk2.4 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
8 Signals
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.
Score impact: 11.2 · Family: Capex Pressure
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 9.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 5.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 5.5 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Rapid Score Deterioration
Abrupt deterioration can indicate multiple compounding issues crossing thresholds together.
Score impact: 2.4 · Family: Governance Risk
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 2.0 · Family: Operational Stress
PFAS Contamination Risk
PFAS detections can force expensive treatment retrofits and accelerate capital plans.
Score impact: 8.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
43.3
Trend
+43.3
Observations
111
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population809
General Fund Expenditure$1.3M
Fund Balance Available$2.2M
Fund Balance %176.4%
Cash & Investments$3.3M
Assessed Valuation$171.6M
Tax Rate0.4
Effective Tax Rate0.4
Tax Collection %97.2%
Amount Uncollected$18K
Days Cash on Hand
441
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
1,700