MISI Score
45.3
Fragile
Project NC / Robeson County
Red Springs
BOTH · Robeson CountyDistressedPWSID NC0378015
Score Confidence
0.9%
Peer Percentile
97.7th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 45.314 (Fragile).
- Population Served Decline adds 9.106 points. Population trend contributes +10: five-year population change is -11.835953%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.106.
- Climate Hazard Exposure adds 7.198 points. Operational climate hazard exposure contributes +8: FEMA NRI composite score is 91.0900. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.198.
- Days Cash on Hand adds 6.470 points. Days-cash contributes +8: current days cash on hand is 0.000 days from connector-sourced ws_days_cash (as of 2024-06-30). variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 6.470.
- Compliance Escalation adds 5.929 points. Operational compliance contributes +6: 24 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6.000000 to 5.929.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Infrastructure Capital Gap, Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Red Springs is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 4,423 residents. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Revenue Fragility, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Operational Stress adding another heavy layer of pressure. That combination suggests strain is showing up across core system functions, not just one isolated dimension.
8 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 5 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 98th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress17.1 / 20.0
Capex Pressure5.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility19.6 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk3.7 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
8 Signals
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 5.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 9.1 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Days Cash on Hand
Weak unrestricted liquidity reduces the utility's ability to absorb rate, capex, or operating shocks.
Score impact: 6.5 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Parent-Government Fiscal Stress
Parent-government debt, pension, or operating stress can constrain infrastructure support and governance flexibility.
Score impact: 3.7 · Family: Governance Risk
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 7.2 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 5.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
High-AGI Out-Migration
High-AGI outmigration erodes the rate base and compresses affordability headroom.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
45.3
Trend
+29.3
Observations
50
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population3,090
General Fund Expenditure$4.4M
Fund Balance Available$1.1M
Fund Balance %25.2%
Cash & Investments$6.1M
Assessed Valuation$210.4M
Tax Rate0.6
Effective Tax Rate0.5
Tax Collection %92.6%
Amount Uncollected$95K
Days Cash on Hand
0
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
4,423