MISI Score
17.0
Stable
Project NC / Halifax County
Scotland Neck
BOTH · Halifax CountyDistressedPWSID NC0442015
Score Confidence
0.8%
Peer Percentile
32.0th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 17.014 (Stable).
- Population Served Decline adds 5.464 points. Population trend contributes +6: five-year population change is -6.866576%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.464.
- High-AGI Out-Migration adds 3.994 points. Revenue-fragility AGI outmigration contributes +4: net AGI migration is -3039.00 (thousands, tax year 2022). variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4 to 3.994.
- Current Drought Severity adds 3.957 points. Current drought severity contributes +4: USDM severity index is 0.7340 as of 2026-05-26. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4 to 3.957.
- Climate Hazard Exposure adds 3.599 points. Operational climate hazard exposure contributes +4: FEMA NRI composite score is 72.9000. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4 to 3.599.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Infrastructure Capital Gap, PFAS Contamination Risk, Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Scotland Neck is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 2,761 residents. At the latest reading, the system shows limited signs of structural stress.
The score is being driven mainly by Revenue Fragility, with Operational Stress adding further pressure. The pressure is distributed rather than concentrated in a single dimension.
4 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 2 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 32nd percentile on measured stress, placing it below typical peer-group stress levels.
Recent score history has been relatively steady, consistent with the system's overall profile.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress7.6 / 20.0
Capex Pressure0.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility9.5 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 9 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
4 Signals
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 5.5 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress
High-AGI Out-Migration
High-AGI outmigration erodes the rate base and compresses affordability headroom.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
17.0
Trend
+17.0
Observations
48
Days Cash on Hand
226
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
2,761