MISI Score
45.0
Fragile
Project NC / Duplin County
Teachey
BOTH · Duplin CountyPWSID NC0431044
Score Confidence
0.9%
Peer Percentile
99.1th
As of
Sep 10, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 45.013 (Fragile).
- Compliance Escalation adds 11.858 points. Operational compliance contributes +12: 26 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 12.000000 to 11.858.
- Population Served Decline adds 9.106 points. Population trend contributes +10: five-year population change is -16.334560%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.106.
- Infrastructure Capital Gap adds 7.492 points. Capex pressure contributes +8: drinking-water capital need is 851927.900020 with per-capita burden 1284.96. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.492.
- Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 5.996 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +6 because direct copper sample exceedances were recorded: lead sample exceedances=0, copper sample exceedances=2, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=0. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.996.
- Missing or unresolved factors: PFAS Contamination Risk, Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Teachey is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 663 residents. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.
The score is being driven mainly by Operational Stress, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Capex Pressure adding another heavy layer of pressure. That combination suggests strain is showing up across core system functions, not just one isolated dimension.
8 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 2 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 99th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.
Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress20.0 / 20.0
Capex Pressure13.5 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility9.1 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk2.4 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
8 Signals
Rapid Score Deterioration
Abrupt deterioration can indicate multiple compounding issues crossing thresholds together.
Score impact: 2.4 · Family: Governance Risk
Infrastructure Capital Gap
Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.
Score impact: 7.5 · Family: Capex Pressure
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 11.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.
Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 3.0 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 6.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 5.4 · Family: Operational Stress
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 9.1 · Family: Revenue Fragility
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
45.0
Trend
+45.0
Observations
111
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population480
General Fund Expenditure$308K
Fund Balance Available$1.1M
Fund Balance %361.2%
Cash & Investments$1.6M
Assessed Valuation$33.2M
Tax Rate0.5
Effective Tax Rate0.3
Tax Collection %96.8%
Amount Uncollected$5K
Days Cash on Hand
358
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
663