MISI Score
18.0
Stable
Project NC / Vance County
Vance County
DW · Vance CountyDistressedPWSID NC0291015
Score Confidence
0.9%
Peer Percentile
37.4th
As of
Jun 8, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 18.007 (Stable).
- Compliance Escalation adds 5.929 points. Operational compliance contributes +6: 30 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6.000000 to 5.929.
- Current Drought Severity adds 3.957 points. Current drought severity contributes +4: USDM severity index is 0.7500 as of 2026-06-02. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4 to 3.957.
- Monitoring / Reporting Failures adds 3.590 points. Monitoring/reporting contributes +4: 64 monitoring-related violations are on record. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4.000000 to 3.590.
- Population Served Decline adds 2.732 points. Population trend contributes +3: five-year population change is -4.849480%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 3 to 2.732.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Infrastructure Capital Gap, PFAS Contamination Risk, Project Status Staleness.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Vance County is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 1,282 residents. At the latest reading, the system shows limited signs of structural stress.
The score is being driven mainly by Operational Stress, which is running high in the model, with Revenue Fragility contributing at a lower level. In other words, Operational Stress is doing most of the heavy lifting in the headline score.
5 active stress signals are attached to this system, including one at high severity. The breadth of active signals, even without concentrated high severity, suggests pressure across more than one dimension.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 37th percentile on measured stress, placing it below typical peer-group stress levels.
Recent score history has been relatively steady, consistent with the system's overall profile.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress15.3 / 20.0
Capex Pressure0.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility2.7 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
5 Signals
Compliance Escalation
Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.
Score impact: 5.9 · Family: Operational Stress
Monitoring / Reporting Failures
Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.
Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 2.7 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 1.8 · Family: Operational Stress
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
18.0
Trend
+18.0
Observations
49
Population Served
1,282