Project NC / Duplin/Pender County

Wallace

BOTH · Duplin/Pender CountyPWSID NC0431010

MISI Score

47.8

Fragile

Score Confidence

1.0%

Peer Percentile

98.7th

As of

Jun 8, 2026

EXPLANATION

Score Drivers

  • MISI score is 47.840 (Fragile).
  • Infrastructure Capital Gap adds 11.238 points. Capex pressure contributes +12: drinking-water capital need is 15367130.207021 with per-capita burden 2638.13. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 12 to 11.238.
  • Population Served Decline adds 9.106 points. Population trend contributes +10: five-year population change is -16.334560%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 10 to 9.106.
  • Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 7.994 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +8 because direct lead sample exceedances were recorded: lead sample exceedances=1, copper sample exceedances=0, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=1. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.994.
  • Compliance Escalation adds 5.929 points. Operational compliance contributes +6: 109 violations or enforcement actions have been recorded within the last three years. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6.000000 to 5.929.
  • Missing or unresolved factors: Project Status Staleness.

MARKET INTERPRETATION

What the data suggests

Wallace is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 5,825 residents. The current reading places the system in a zone of moderate-to-elevated stress that goes beyond normal operating variation.

The score is being driven mainly by Capex Pressure, which is at the top of its range in the model, with Operational Stress adding another heavy layer of pressure. That combination suggests strain is showing up across core system functions, not just one isolated dimension.

8 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 3 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.

Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 99th percentile on measured stress, placing it near the top of peer-group stress.

Recent observations suggest the system has been relatively steady rather than sharply improving or deteriorating — the current picture looks more like persistent underlying pressure than a sudden shift.

This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.

SCORE STACK

Family Contributions

Operational Stress17.9 / 20.0
Capex Pressure19.2 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility10.7 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0

SL 2020-79

SWIA Assessment History

20242023202220212019
43464

ACTIVE SIGNALS

8 Signals

MaterialactiveMar 24, 2026

Monitoring / Reporting Failures

Recurring monitoring or reporting failures often signal weak administrative capacity or deteriorating operational discipline.

Score impact: 3.6 · Family: Operational Stress

SignificantactiveMar 24, 2026

Population Served Decline

A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.

Score impact: 9.1 · Family: Revenue Fragility

SignificantactiveMar 25, 2026

Infrastructure Capital Gap

Large structural capital need relative to local support capacity often precedes major rate or funding pressure.

Score impact: 11.2 · Family: Capex Pressure

MaterialactiveApr 7, 2026

Climate Hazard Exposure

Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.

Score impact: 5.4 · Family: Operational Stress

MaterialactiveApr 7, 2026

Current Drought Severity

Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.

Score impact: 3.0 · Family: Operational Stress

SignificantactiveApr 7, 2026

Lead & Copper Rule Risk

Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.

Score impact: 8.0 · Family: Capex Pressure

MaterialactiveMar 24, 2026

Compliance Escalation

Repeated or serious compliance failures often indicate rising operational and infrastructure stress.

Score impact: 5.9 · Family: Operational Stress

EmergingactiveMar 27, 2026

Days Cash on Hand

Weak unrestricted liquidity reduces the utility's ability to absorb rate, capex, or operating shocks.

Score impact: 1.6 · Family: Revenue Fragility

HISTORY

Score Trend

Latest

47.8

Trend

+27.8

Observations

51

Mar 24, 2026 · 20.0Mar 25, 2026 · 32.0Mar 27, 2026 · 34.0Mar 29, 2026 · 34.0Apr 2, 2026 · 34.0Apr 3, 2026 · 34.0Apr 3, 2026 · 34.0Apr 4, 2026 · 34.0Apr 5, 2026 · 34.0Apr 5, 2026 · 34.0Apr 6, 2026 · 52.0Apr 7, 2026 · 52.0Apr 8, 2026 · 52.0Apr 9, 2026 · 52.0Apr 10, 2026 · 52.0Apr 13, 2026 · 52.0Apr 14, 2026 · 52.0Apr 18, 2026 · 52.0Apr 19, 2026 · 52.0Apr 21, 2026 · 52.0Apr 22, 2026 · 52.0Apr 23, 2026 · 52.0Apr 24, 2026 · 52.0Apr 25, 2026 · 52.0Apr 26, 2026 · 48.8Apr 26, 2026 · 52.0Apr 27, 2026 · 48.8Apr 28, 2026 · 48.8Apr 29, 2026 · 48.8Apr 30, 2026 · 48.8May 1, 2026 · 48.8May 2, 2026 · 48.8May 3, 2026 · 48.8May 4, 2026 · 48.8May 5, 2026 · 48.8May 6, 2026 · 48.8May 7, 2026 · 48.8May 8, 2026 · 48.8May 9, 2026 · 48.8May 10, 2026 · 48.8May 17, 2026 · 48.8May 19, 2026 · 48.8May 21, 2026 · 48.8May 22, 2026 · 48.8May 24, 2026 · 48.8May 26, 2026 · 48.8May 28, 2026 · 48.8May 31, 2026 · 48.8Jun 1, 2026 · 48.8Jun 2, 2026 · 48.8Jun 8, 2026 · 47.8Mar 24, 2026Jun 8, 2026

Days Cash on Hand

153

Days Cash As Of

Jun 30, 2024

Population Served

5,825