MISI Score
23.3
Watch
Project NC / Warren County
Warrenton
BOTH · Warren CountyDistressedPWSID NC0293010
Score Confidence
0.8%
Peer Percentile
70.2th
As of
Jun 2, 2026
EXPLANATION
Score Drivers
- MISI score is 23.258 (Watch).
- Lead & Copper Rule Risk adds 7.994 points. Lead and copper risk contributes +8 because direct lead sample exceedances were recorded: lead sample exceedances=2, copper sample exceedances=2, legacy action-level exceedances=0, open LCR violations=0. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 8 to 7.994.
- Population Served Decline adds 5.464 points. Population trend contributes +6: five-year population change is -5.543271%. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 6 to 5.464.
- Days Cash on Hand adds 4.044 points. Days-cash contributes +5: current days cash on hand is 57.550 days from connector-sourced ws_days_cash (as of 2024-06-30). variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 5 to 4.044.
- Current Drought Severity adds 3.957 points. Current drought severity contributes +4: USDM severity index is 0.7500 as of 2026-05-26. variance weighting adjusted headline contribution from 4 to 3.957.
- Missing or unresolved factors: Infrastructure Capital Gap, PFAS Contamination Risk, Parent-Government Fiscal Stress.
MARKET INTERPRETATION
What the data suggests
Warrenton is a smaller community water system, serving approximately 2,250 residents. At the latest reading, Munimetric flags the system as showing early but meaningful signs of structural stress.
The score is being driven mainly by Revenue Fragility, with Capex Pressure adding further pressure. The pressure is distributed rather than concentrated in a single dimension.
5 active stress signals are attached to this system, including 2 at high severity. That signal mix points to a system where several warning indicators are firing at once, not just one extreme outlier.
Within its peer cohort, this system ranks around the 70th percentile on measured stress, placing it above most of its peers on measured stress, though not yet in the most extreme tier.
Recent score history has been relatively steady, consistent with the system's overall profile.
This summary is based on structured, source-backed public data and is intended for research and monitoring only. It is not investment advice, a credit opinion, or municipal advisory guidance.
SCORE STACK
Family Contributions
Operational Stress5.8 / 20.0
Capex Pressure8.0 / 20.0
Revenue Fragility9.5 / 20.0
Rate Constraint0.0 / 20.0
Governance Risk0.0 / 20.0
SL 2020-79
SWIA Assessment History
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9 |
ACTIVE SIGNALS
5 Signals
Population Served Decline
A shrinking served population weakens the customer base and raises infrastructure cost per customer.
Score impact: 5.5 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Days Cash on Hand
Weak unrestricted liquidity reduces the utility's ability to absorb rate, capex, or operating shocks.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Revenue Fragility
Climate Hazard Exposure
Elevated drought and flood exposure raises outage, source-water, and infrastructure reliability stress.
Score impact: 1.8 · Family: Operational Stress
Lead & Copper Rule Risk
Lead and copper exceedances and replacement obligations can drive near-term treatment and capital pressure.
Score impact: 8.0 · Family: Capex Pressure
Current Drought Severity
Active drought conditions stress source-water availability and treatment operations.
Score impact: 4.0 · Family: Operational Stress
HISTORY
Score Trend
Latest
23.3
Trend
+23.3
Observations
48
NC TREASURER FBA
Financial Benchmarks
Population821
General Fund Expenditure$1.3M
Fund Balance Available$861K
Fund Balance %65.5%
Cash & Investments$1.5M
Assessed Valuation$72.0M
Tax Rate0.7
Effective Tax Rate0.5
Tax Collection %96.5%
Amount Uncollected$17K
Days Cash on Hand
58
Days Cash As Of
Jun 30, 2024
Population Served
2,250